According to a McKinsey study, workers in the two lowest income quintiles (less than $30,800 per year and $30,800 to $38,200) will be 10 to 14 times more likely to change jobs by 2030.
These two income quintiles would be disproportionately represented today by people with little education, women, and people of color, the study says. Women, in particular, are 1.5 times more likely than men to be forced to change jobs, according to the study. It cites back-office, customer service, food service, and manufacturing jobs as examples.
The study predicts a loss of 1.1 million jobs in these areas, while 3.8 million jobs are expected to be created in the top income quintile. McKinsey recommends continuing education programs, efficient job placement and other hiring and training practices, and increased geographic mobility.
With millions of jobs potentially being eliminated by automation—and even more being created in fields requiring different skills—the United States needs broad access to effective training programs as well as job-matching assistance that can help individuals find opportunities.
Generative AI and the future of work in America, McKinsey Global Institue
Emotional and digital skills in demand
One conclusion of the study is that the demand for jobs requiring basic cognitive and manual skills will decline. By 2030, jobs that currently account for up to 30 percent of hours worked in the U.S. economy could be automated.
Generative AI is expected to accelerate this trend. However, the work of STEM professionals, creative professionals, and business and legal professionals would be enhanced rather than displaced by generative AI.
Physical labor in sectors such as transportation, construction, and healthcare would not disappear, however, and would continue to account for nearly 31 percent of working hours. Overall, the demand for social-emotional and digital skills would increase.